{"id":24704,"date":"2024-07-03T06:52:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T05:52:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jb365-vip.com\/?p=24704"},"modified":"2024-07-03T08:59:09","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T07:59:09","slug":"my-four-examples-of-dead-runs-estimation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jb365-vip.com\/my-four-examples-of-dead-runs-estimation\/","title":{"rendered":"My four examples of Dead Runs estimation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following his article on Dead Runs, responding to the critics<\/a>, Peter Kettle puts forward four examples of how he assessed these for Don Bradman<\/p>\n

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 1<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

BRADMAN – Aus vs West Indies
Melbourne, Feb 1931 (4th Test)
Initial Aus\/WI series<\/p>\n

WI 1st inns, 99 runs
Aus 1st inns, 328\/8 dec (Bradman 152)
So lead is 229<\/p>\n

Aus 2nd inns: <\/span>assume, Minimum of\u00a0 250 runs<\/span><\/p>\n

In this series, Aus other 2nd inns: 172\/0 and, on a sticky pitch, 220.
Aus completed 1st inns of 376, 369, 558 and, on sticky pitch, 224. Kippax, McCabe, Ponsford and Woodfull doing well (besides Bradman)<\/p>\n

Target for WI 2nd inns would then be 479 runs.
The Remote Possibility is put at 370 (ie 109 less), representing notional 1 in 20 odds.
This implies a safe 1st inns dec by Aus at 219<\/strong><\/span> (instead of at 328, being 109 less).<\/p>\n

Rationale:<\/p>\n

In this series, WI highest 2nd inns total is 249 (Headley only 11), all others being below 200;<\/p>\n

And WI highest 1st inns is 350\/6 (Headley 105) with wickets then tumbling.<\/p>\n

Previously, a final inns target of 370 had been reached or exceeded in all Tests only 3 times, highest 411 (all post-WW1).<\/p>\n\n\n

Bradman was out when Aus score was on 286 with 67 team Dead Runs then accumulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He scored twice as fast as his partners, ratio of 66:34.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So 66% of 67 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 44 (best estimate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Set within limits of 31 and 57 for him – reflecting alternative estimates of the
remote possibility starting at 350 or 390.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 2<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BRADMAN \u2013 Aus vs South Africa<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adelaide, Jan 1932 (4th<\/sup> Test)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SA 1st<\/sup> inns, 308 runs<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aus 1st<\/sup> inns, 513 (Bradman 299*) \u2013 lead of 205<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aus 2nd<\/sup> inns: assume, Minimum 270 runs<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n

In this series, only 2 of Aus 6 inns are under 450, being 1<\/span><\/i>st<\/span><\/i> innings of 198 (Bradman\u2019s 2, his only failure) and, on very sticky pitch, 153.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n

Target for SA 2nd<\/sup> inns would then be 475 runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Remote Possibility is put as starting at 390 (ie 85 lower), the notional 1 in 20 chance.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implies a safe 1st<\/sup> inns dec by Aus at 428<\/strong> (instead of 513).<\/p>\n\n\n

Rationale:<\/span><\/p>\n

In this series, SA highest inns is 358 (3<\/span><\/i>rd<\/span><\/i> Test), with highest 2<\/span><\/i>nd<\/span><\/i> inns of 274 and 225.                             <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

390 been exceeded only twice in all Tests before then, highest 411 (both times post-WW2).<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n\n\n

Bradman was undefeated at close of Aus 1st<\/sup> inns when 85 team Dead Runs had accumulated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He scored faster than his partners, ratio of 65:35.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So 65% of 85 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 55 (best estimate).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within limits of 42 and 68 for him \u2013 reflecting alternative estimates of the remote possibility starting at 370 and 410.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 3<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BRADMAN \u2013 Aus vs England<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Melbourne, Jan 1937 (3rd<\/sup> Test)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aus (200) led England (76 on a \u201cgluepot\u201d pitch) by 124 runs on 1st<\/sup> inns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then Aus saw out the difficult conditions with its tail-enders and went on to amass 564 runs in 2nd<\/sup> inns, with Bradman (270) and Fingleton (136), both in the lower middle-order, making nearly three-quarters of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So Eng were set the colossal target of 689 runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Remote Possibility is put as starting at 440 runs (representing the 1 in 20 chance) \u2013 implying a cut of 249 to Aus 2nd<\/sup> inns, with a declaration at 315.<\/p>\n\n\n

Rationale:<\/span><\/p>\n