However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it’s not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that’ll be for some other time.

Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should be also a DRAW proba??bility added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.[/?QUOTE]

Thanks for reading and commenting, don’t think I’ve had one from Russia before.

Agreed, there are other things to take into account for draws. One difficulty is, if we want to give credit to an individual for forcing a draw, we need to know at what point they started playing for a draw, or at least at what point a draw becomes a favourable result??. Also, that credit would probab??ly only be appropriate at a later stage of the game. Similarly,increasing the probability of a draw is not necessarily always a good thing.

The informat?ion is there, but the intangibles are myriad and hugely complicate the issue.

It seems W?in Shares is a measure that takes into account everything a player does? I did come up with something along those lines, called Series Points, link here:-

[url=//jb365-vip.com/blog/features/46.php]Cricket Web – Features: Series Points – A New Way of Ranking Test Players[/url]

However, we have another variable to take into account other than the score, which is time passed in the game; it’s not the same to get in, or out, at 22/4 in the first or last day, but that’ll be for some other time.

Another thing, as we have 3 (4) possible results, I think that there should b??e also ??a DRAW probability added (or lost), which of course should take into account time passed in the game.

I’d automate it all for you but I don’t have FOW data in my database and don’t see any easy way to get it in there.

So after realizing that the first method wasn’t fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?

Sure. Say a match situation is 170/3 in the first innings, I search the re?sults for all Tests which had that same situation; say we find that there have been 259 Tests with that situation, and the results of those tests were

batting team win: 102
Draw: 126
bowling team win: 31

Clearly the home team is favoured in this situation and we can calculate each team’s win probability from the above numbers, and at any stage of the match.

So after realizing that the first method wasn’t fair, did you then work out how the 5 batsman went using the new criteria?[/QUOTE]

Actually not yet as I’d need to look at all their Tests and calculatte the win probability at each stage of the match, and it isn’t as yet automated. Though Rob (see above) might be able to.