My four examples of Dead Runs estimation

Peter Kettle | 6:52am BST 03 July 2024

Following his article on Dead Runs, responding to the critics, Peter🍸 Kettleꦇ puts forward four examples of how he assessed these for Don Bradman

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 1

BRADMAN – Aus vs West Indies
Melbourne, Feb 1931 (4th Test)
Initial Aus/WI series

WI 1st inns, 99 runs
Aus 1st inns, 328/8 dec (Bradman 152)
So lead is 229

Aus 2nd inns: assume, Minimum of  250 runs

In this series, Aus other 2nd inns: 172/0 and, on a sticky pitch, 220.
Aus completed 1st inns of 376, 369, 558 and, on sticky pitch, 224. Kippax, McCabe, 🅷Ponsford and Woodfull d💟oing well (besides Bradman)

Target for WI 2nd inns would then be 479 runs.
The Remote Possibility is put at 370 (ie 109 less), representing notional 1 in 20 odds.
This implies a safe 1st inns dec by Aus at 219 (instead of at 328, being 109 less).

Rationale:

In this 🌺series, WI highest 2nd inns total is 249 (Headley only 11), all others being b🌠elow 200;

And WI highest 1♔st inns is 350/6 (Headley 105)💫 with wickets then tumbling.

Previously, a final inns target of 370 had been reached or exceeded in all Tests only 3 times, highest 411 𝐆(all post-WW1).

Bradman was out when Aus🎉 score was on 286 with 67 team Dead Runs th🔯en accumulated.

He scored twi𒁃ce as fast as his partners, ratio of 66:34.

So 66% of 67 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 44 (best estimate)

Set within limits of 31 and 57 for him – reflecting alternative estimates of the
remote possibility starting at 350 or 390.

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 2

BRADMAN – Aus vs South Africa

Adelaide, Jan 1932 (4^th Test)

SA 1^st inns, 308 runs

Aus 1^st inns, 513 (Bradman 299*) – lead of 205

Aus 2^nd inns: assume, Minimum 270 runs

In this series, only 2 of Aus 6 inns are ꦅunder 450, being 1st innings of 198 (Bradman’s 2, hiﷺs only failure) and, on ve🎀ry sticky pitch, 153.

Target for SA 2^nd inns would then be 475 runs.

The Remote Possibility is put as starting at 3ཧ90♔ (ie 85 lower), the notional 1 in 20 chance.

Implies a safe 1^st inns dec by Aus at 428 (instead of 513).

Rationale:

In this series, SA highest inns is 358 (3rd Test), with highest 2nd inns of 274 and 225.&nbs🧸p;                            

390 been exceeded only twice in all Tests before then, highest 411 (both ti꧂mes post-WW2𒁃).

Bradman was undefeated at close of Aus 1^st inns when 85 team Dead Runs had accumulated.

He scored ꦅfaster than his partners, ratio of 65:35.

So 65% of 85 Dead Runs are attributed to Bradman = 55 (best estimate).

Within limits of 42 and 68 for him – reflecting alternative estimates of the remote possibility starting at 370 and 410.

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 3

BRADMAN – Aus vs England

Melbourne, Jan 1937 (3^rd Test)

Aus (200) led England (76 on a “gluepot” pitch) by 124 runs on 1^st inns.

Then Aus saw out the difficult conditions with its tail-enders and went on to amass 564 runs in 2^nd inns, with Bradman (270) and Fingleton (1♒36), both in the lower middle-order, making nearly three-q𝓀uarters of them.

So Eng were set the colossal target of 689 runs.

The Remote Possibility is put as starting at 440 runs (representing the 1 in 20 chance) – implying a cut of 249 to Aus 2^nd inns, with a declaration at 315.

Rationale:

• • • England’s 2nd inns totals in this series didn’t exceed 330, but they pos🍒ted 426/6 in the 2nd Test First inns (Hammond double century).

• • • Highest final innings before then was 411, by England at Sydney iꦫn Dec 1924 (with two scores just♐ past 100 and 2 just past 50).

Br🐓adman was out with the score on 549, so team dead Runs had by then accumulated to 234.

He was again outscoring partners by 65:35, giving him 152 Dead Runs.

Within a range of 139 to 165 Dead Run🍎s on alternative remote possibility estimates of 420 and 460 runs.

DEAD RUNS EXAMPLE 4

BRADMAN – Aus vs England

Sydney, Dec 1946 (2nd Test)

Australia replied to England’s modest 1st inns of 255 with a massive 659/8 dec – a lead of🔜 404 runs. Barnes and Bradman each made 234.

Remote Possibility for England’s 2nd inns put at 430, given its 2nd inns totals in thiꦕs series of 371, 310/7 (top scores 112 and 53) and 340/8 dec (top scores 103 and 76🐬). Represents the 1 in 20 chance.

A team sc💛ore of 430 has been exceeded eigh🐎t times in a final innings in all Test history, and approached by South Africa vs England in 1947 (423/7).

Aus 2nd inns assumed, as a Minimum, to be 230 – in light of🤡 its 253 and 214/5 in the final Test of this series.

This implies a safe Aus 1st inns dec at 455, with a lead of 200. Bradman was out at 564 w🔴ith team Dead Runs by then 109.

Bradman scored faster than Barnes, his partner throughout, at 6🔜0:40. So 60% of 109 gives Bradman’s own Dead Runs, ie 65.

Alternative estimates are for the Remote Possibility to occur at💮 410 or 450 (the latter being equal🌟led/exceeded four times in Test history), implying Bradman’s Dead Runs are within the range of 53 and 77.